Ed Pilkington, 20 July, 2009
The world’s population will soon experience a moment of huge social and economic importance. For the first time the number of people aged 65 or more will be greater than the number of children under five years old. A new report by the US census bureau shows the world’s population is ageing rapidly, with enormous consequences for both rich and poor nations. This situation will bring challenges for both families and politicians, including how to care for older people living alone to how to pay for enormous numbers of pensioners – more than one billion of them by 2040.
The report, An Ageing World: 2008, shows that within ten years older people will outnumber children for the first time. It forecasts that over the next 30 years the number of over-65s will double, from 506 million in 2008 to 1.3 billion – an increase from 7% of the world’s population to 14%. Already, the number of people in the world 65 and over is increasing at an average of 870,000 each month.
The number of people over 65 will increase rapidly in the next couple of years. The change is the result of a combination of the high birth rates after the Second World War and recent improvements in health that are bringing down death rates at older ages. United Nations forecasts predict that the global population will be more than nine billion by 2050.
The US census bureau was the first to draw attention to these changes. This is its ninth report using data from around the world since it first reported in 1987. Its latest forecasts warn governments and international bodies that this change in population structure will bring significant problems at every level of human organization, starting with the structure of the family, which will be transformed as people live longer. This will also bring new problems for careers and social services providers, while changes in work and retirement will have an impact on health services and pensions systems. “People are living longer and, in some parts of the world, healthier lives,” the authors say. “This represents one of the greatest achievements of the last century but also a significant challenge as numbers of older people increase in most countries.” Europe is the oldest continent, with 23 of the world’s 25 oldest countries. By 2040, more than one in four Europeans are expected to be at least 65, and one in seven at least 75.
The UK is number 19 in the list of the world’s oldest countries. Number one is Japan, which recently replaced Italy as the world’s oldest major country. Its life expectancy at birth is 82 years. In western Europe, France, Sweden and Italy all have life expectancies of more than 80 years. In the UK it is 78.8.
The difference in life expectancy between rich and poor nations is huge. The report shows that a person born in a developed country can expect to live 14 years longer than someone in a developing country. Zimbabwe has the lowest life expectancy. It is just 40 years – the result of a combination of Aids, famine and dictatorship.
But an important finding of the report is that poorer countries are also experiencing the phenomenon of an ageing population. More than 80% of the increase in older people in the year up to July 2008 was seen in developing countries. By 2040, the poor world is expected to be home to more than 1 billion people aged 65 and over – as much as 76% of the world total.
Many countries with large numbers of old people are already having problems paying for a longer retirement for their older population. Life expectancy after retirement has already reached 21 years for French men and 26 years for French women. Retirement ages have begun to rise in developed countries, as governments encourage people to continue working, but public pensions funds may be unable to provide enough money to pay for old age pensions.
Socially, too, there are pressures for both individuals and families. Women live on average seven years longer than men, so more and more older women are living alone. Around half of all women 65 and over in Germany, Denmark and Slovakia are on their own and loneliness is a major problem.
© Guardian News & Media 2009
First published in The Guardian, 20/07/09
A. Look in the text and find this information as quickly as possible.
1. What will the world’s population be in 2050?
2. How many of the world’s 25 oldest countries are in Europe?
3. By 2040 how many Europeans will be at least 65?
4. Which country has the highest life expectancy in the world?
5. Which country has the lowest life expectancy?
6. How much longer (on average) do women live than men?
B. Read the text again and match the beginnings and endings to make sentences about the text.
1. People over 65 will soon …
2. The number of people in the world over 65 years old ….
3. This change in population structure …
4. People born in developed countries …
5. By 2040, 76% of people aged 65 and over ...
6. Large numbers of older women live alone because …
a) … will live in poor, developing countries.
b) … will bring significant problems to families and social service providers.
c) … women live on average seven years longer than men.
d) … is increasing at an average of 870,000 each month.
e) … outnumber children under five years old for the first time.
f) … live on average 14 years longer than those born in developing countries.
C. Contextual reference: What do the words in bold (in the text) refer to?
D. Translate the text.
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